Books Jun 16, 2022 at 11:01 am

Nothing should lead us to believe that the fall of the US and the rise of China will be peaceful

The Mid-autumn Festival ,Pavilion of Prince Teng and the brige across to Yangtze River under the moon at night - stock photo Xiansheng Dai

Comments

1

Soooooo.... you read a few books (I read them to, but did not see them as biblical prophecies)?

I gotta say even I was embarrassed by this mess, Charles. Are the editors on vacation?

2

https://youtu.be/sw66FjKY2RE

3

A surprisingly modernist analysis

5

I agree, WWIII has started. Where I disagree with you Charles is that the tide is shifting to China. First because China has probably hit it's peak power. China's one child policy has succeeded in curbing population growth so much that they had had to go to a three child policy in hopes of keeping population up. So they are faced with an aging population, while not attracting immigration to keep the numbers of workers up, and attract talent. The second reason China will not usurp the US is that is not how hegemony has ever worked before. Historically, when the power of the hegemon is challenged, the challenger has always lost. If the hegemon is still strong, they stay on top. If they are not, then hegemony has passed to the strongest ally that supported them in the challenge. Of course, no challenger yet has destroyed the global economic system with their challenge. Once the nukes are loosed, the system as we know it is gone.

8

NATO war with Russia is now all but inevitable, the question for the U.S. is will you take the fascist side with Putin or the NATO side?

https://gcaptain.com/support-grows-for-naval-escorts-for-ukraine-grain/

https://gcaptain.com/maritime-security-program-cargo-ship-set-to-transport-medical-and-defense-supplies-towards-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR3rr8YDqUYaZKUSxUfDEYsEDjekdwszB3hoA0GCRTH0tvGARY9gAXZyOAw

10

@9
Finland - as neighbor to Russia - already has the bomb shelters. Our tax records are safely stored underground in Martinsburg, WV in case of war. We citizens, however, will get fried.
Wars are much easier to start than to end. And most are overly optimistic that their side will win.
Case in point - at the 1st battle of Bull Run - or Manasses, if you prefer, Northern picnickers were watching the battle as if it were a cute little skirmish. Four years and 600,000 dead later, the Civil War was over.

11

I think its wrong to call this a proxy war between USA and Russia. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine and it is in the interest of the USA that Russia "lose". The USA has no particular interest in the fate of Ukraine as such. But it does have an interest in maintaining the convention that signatories of the United Nations charter will not resolve disputes through warfare without first filling out the proper paperwork.

Also, to be a "proxy war", Russia would need a proxy too but Russia is just, like, in there.

14

@12. Are you pulling my leg?

15

@14 Your work is always good, or great, and on spot, and personally I think it's funny how you trigger the nattering trolly-trroll nanoobs

16

Oh Charles, China already lost.

It's all over but the after party.

18

I agree with most of the comments here. The demographics work against China. They don't want the relatively few young men they have to die in a war. They also don't want to sacrifice their newfound (relative) prosperity.

In contrast, Russia is definitely willing to start another world war as it tries to piece together their old empire. There are similar dynamics, in that the economy has stalled, and many feel like they were screwed out of what is justifiably theirs. (A Marshall Plan in the old Soviet Union following the breakup would have saved a shitload of lives and made for a much better world.) The problem is their old military has fallen apart. They can't even take Ukraine, despite minimal opposition from the west. There is no air support for Ukraine, for example (unlike Syria). Yet Russia is by no means winning this war, even though most experts thought they would control the whole country by now (leaving the Ukrainians to resort to guerrilla resistance). Putin has lied to his countrymen, and the passion for this war may soon disappear if more men are lost. Russia has learned how to be vicious occupier, but they aren't very good at winning battles. This is actually the worst combination, as it increases resistance.

The strength of these and other despotic regimes has been the reluctance of nations to get involved in other country's affairs. China exploits their own people, but we bought their stuff for decades. They helped despotic regimes in Africa, and we looked the other way (because we used to do much the same). They are just better at it now, because technology has improved. A hot war (like in Ukraine) fucks all that up.

That doesn't mean that someone else won't stretch the envelope and misread the situation (as presumably, Putin did). But it seems less likely, given what has happened over the last few months. The more likely doomsday situation is the rise of despotism nationalism, country by country. History has shown over the last few years that this can happen pretty much anywhere.

19

Marxist version:

"What you will not find in capitalist history is a peaceful transition between powers. [...] The transition between the United Kingdom to the United States was completed in the 20th century after the Second World War broke Europe's back."

Actual version:

"By 1890, the United States had by far the world's most productive economy. American industry produced twice as much as its closest competitor, Britain."

(https://web.archive.org/web/20040302193732/http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/database/article_display.cfm?HHID=188)

Do tell us all about the huge war that broke out between the US and the British Empire in the late 19th Century. (Bonuses accrue for steampunk references.)

@5: "Historically, when the power of the hegemon is challenged, the challenger has always lost. If the hegemon is still strong, they stay on top. If they are not, then hegemony has passed to the strongest ally that supported them in the challenge."

The reason WWI lasted longer than a few months was the entrance of Britain, the sole European power Germany could not defeat on land. Britain entered the war primarily because Kaiser Wilhelm II had declared Germany would surpass Britain as the world's primary naval power. The Royal Navy proved equal to the challenge, and after two battles (neither conclusive) Germany's High Seas Fleet retreated, never to mount another challenge. Naval supremacy eventually passed to the United States, Britain's strongest supporter in WWI. Thus, actual history nicely validates both of your points.

21

World War III hasn't necessarily started. In the cold war there were many proxy wars that lasted years and ended inconclusively. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea etc. None of them resulted in World War III. However, several resulted in substantial blowback.

22

"...Cixin describes in Ball Lightning. One must read his novels not as science fiction but as a history of the future."

So, in that not-too-distant future, the Stranger will be screaming about deleted texts between Seattle's Mayor and Chief of Police concerning the SPD's use of Lightning Balls against poor little innocent ACAB protesters?

Also, @12, nicely done! (You even panicked Charles.) Please keep up the good work. :-)

23

Excellent use of world-systems analysis. I need to finish the trilogy (I got side-tracked by M-theory). Very much appreciated and I second the comment by Merchant Seaman on the nattering trolly-trroll nanoobs.


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